NEW YORK(AP)
Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive John Thain is making a
pitch to Wall Street: Buy the brokerage's shares while
they're still cheap. But investors don't seem ready to
listen.
In spite of a nearly 400-point surge in the Dow Jones
industrials this past week, the market is expected to remain on
edge for the foreseeable future. The reasons are varied: The
economy is stumbling, the price of oil is still high and the
housing slump that triggered the year-old credit crisis is not yet
abating.
The market was clearly relieved by the upbeat financial sector
earnings reports from Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. this
past week. But while the old rule on the Street is that financials
tend to be the group that leads the broader market higher in any
rebound, investors are taking a cautious approach, waiting for more
positive signs that the worst of the credit crisis is behind
financial companies.
Thain, like many of his colleagues, believes badly beaten
financials represent opportunity.
"At what point do buyers realize that stock prices have
gone too low and there's a real buy opportunity?" Thain
said in an interview after Merrill released earnings on Thursday.
"It for sure will happen eventually. Whenever we get these
kind of crisis and panic type selling, they always present great
buying opportunities for those who can overcome the fear."
Though bank and brokerage stocks surged earlier in the week on
JPMorgan Chase's results and an equally pleasing report from
Wells Fargo & Co., investors on Friday took a more conservative
stance. A nearly 8 percent surge in Citi's stock on Friday had
little influence on the rest of the nation's bank stocks _ the
Philadelphia/KBW Bank index of 24 companies edged up by just under
1 percent.
Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said
the biggest reason investors aren't ready to snap up financials
is because of the companies' need for more capital. Global
banks and brokerages have written down some $300 billion of bad
investments since last year, and have raised just as much by
selling stakes to big investors like sovereign wealth funds.
"That's dilutive to the shares, makes them worth
less," Hogan said. "Merrill Lynch continues to take
charges, and they'll need to raise capital. You don't want
to jump into the financial sector until you know how much capital
needs to be raised, and that's going to restrain the overall
market from moving higher."
He said Citi's move higher on Friday was in part because the
bank not only kept write-downs below expectations, but did not need
to raise any new money. Others might not be as fortunate _ on
Friday goverment-sponsored mortgage lender Freddie Mac informed
regulators it plans to float $5.5 billion of new stock to stave off
its financial troubles.
Moreover, a solid move higher on Wall Street is likely to be a
ways off because investors' concerns have gone well beyond the
hobbled financial sector. This past week the government reported
that consumer prices surged 5 percent in the past year, the biggest
jump since 1991. Higher expenses for food and fuel caused yet
another increase in June, according to the Labor Department.
With consumers struggling with falling home values and the
ongoing credit crisis, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a tough
spot. Raising interest rates might help fight inflation, but it
also could slow the economy even further.
And there's still a great deal of anxiety in the market
about consumer spending, with so much money going into
Americans' gas tanks _ even though crude oil futures plunged
nearly $16 over three days this past week. It's too soon to say
that the energy bubble is over, especially since speculative buying
has taken crude to previously unthinkable prices this year.
Professional traders believe that all investors will have to
wait a bit longer to determine if financial stocks are poised to
lead the market higher. The answer might come in the next few weeks
as even more financial companies _ along with other major sectors _
continue to post quarterly results.
"The real message is that there really aren't a lot of
buyers out there these days," Hogan said. "John Thain
will find them once we get a better idea about how much capital is
needed to prop up the financials."
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