JOHANNESBURG, South Africa(AP)
Zimbabwe's beaten down opposition may end up being forced to
accept what it swears is unacceptable _ a power-sharing deal with
President Robert Mugabe.
Some say it would only prolong Zimbabwe's agony, while
others see a coalition _ perhaps with Mugabe as president and
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai as prime minister or vice
president _ as the only way to lead the nation out of the impasse
and begin reversing its economic collapse.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, appointed by the main
regional bloc to mediate between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, has said
some form of coalition is the goal of talks that got off to a
tentative start in South Africa on July 10.
On Friday, the opposition applauded plans announced for Mbeki to
work closely with the U.N. and the African Union as he attempts to
mediate, saying that this satisfies its demand that Mbeki be joined
by another mediator. The opposition had accused Mbeki of favoring
Mugabe.
George Sibotshiwe, a spokesman for Tsvangirai's Movement for
Democratic Change, said Friday's announcement could open the
way to agreement in coming days on a framework for power-sharing
talks.
A partnership with Mugabe may be the best hope remaining for
Tsvangirai's party.
Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party remain adamant that he is
Zimbabwe's duly elected leader, even if most of the rest of the
world says a June 27 runoff in which he claimed overwhelming
victory over Tsvangirai was a sham.
More ominously, Mugabe's military chiefs say their
allegiance is only to Mugabe.
Any dramatic intervention by the outside world looks unlikely.
On July 11 Russia and China delivered a rare twin veto of a
U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution that would have
imposed sanctions on Mugabe and his top aides. The aim was to
punish them for allegedly overseeing political violence and fraud,
and to force them to negotiate.
ZANU-PF has said it's open to power-sharing _ as long as
Mugabe heads any coalition. The opposition says publicly it's
open to what it calls a "government of national healing,"
but only with moderate ZANU-PF members, not Mugabe.
Nqobizitha Mlilo, spokesman for Tsvangirai's party, told The
Associated Press this week that its position on Mugabe had not
changed.
But Davie Malungisa, director of the Institute for a Democratic
Alternative for Zimbabwe, an independent Harare-based group,
described Tsvangirai's objection to Mugabe as a negotiating
position.
"When you are getting into bargaining ... you start from
very high," Malungisa said in a telephone interview from
Zimbabwe. "It's a matter of who blinks first."
A political marriage of convenience to avert bloodshed is not
unprecedented. Both Mugabe and Nelson Mandela in South Africa
included whites in their governments after toppling white rule.
A more recent model is Kenya, where rival factions agreed to
share power after a disputed presidential election in December led
to violence. The agreement left incumbent Mwai Kibaki, accused of
stealing the vote, as president, with his rival, Raila Odinga as
prime minister.
Zimbabwe's violence, though not on the scale or ethnic fury
of Kenya's, has been devastating to Tsvangirai's party. It
estimates more than 120 of its activists have been killed by
Mugabe's police, soldiers and party militants since the first
round of the presidential election was held in March.
Deaths, arrests and threats that have sent surviving activists
underground have robbed the party of organizational and negotiating
skills at a crucial point.
With the international community increasingly eager to prosecute
dictators, Mugabe may see hanging onto power as his only protection
from trial.
Tsvangirai has sought to allay Mugabe's concern by saying he
would not pursue human-rights or war-crimes trials against him or
his lieutenants, because these would distract Zimbabweans from the
task of rebuilding the nation.
Geraldine Mattioli, a specialist on international justice with
Human Rights Watch, challenges that approach.
"It might be tempting to give immunity to someone like
Mugabe," she said. But "in our view, trading justice for
what is perceived as peace often has very negative consequences in
the long term."
Malungisa says agreeing to govern alongside a man accused of
torturing and killing dissidents "would be suicidal,"
because Mugabe could betray Tsvangirai.
But he also said the opposition has little room to maneuver _
that while Mugabe's forces are regrouping, Tsvangirai's are
being weakened.
"They've been tortured into negotiations," he
said.
___
Donna Bryson is the AP's chief of bureau for southern
Africa.
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